Weekly Financial News — May 8, 2026

🌍 The week’s dominant theme

The week of May 1 to May 8, 2026 was dominated by an explosive cocktail: persistent Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which kept Brent crude above $100 per barrel, counterbalanced by an insatiable appetite for AI-related stocks. Add to this a historic transition at the helm of the U.S. Federal Reserve — Jerome Powell just chaired his final meeting before handing over to Kevin Warsh in mid-May — and an increasingly intense debate around the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and go away” as the S&P 500 just closed its best month since November 2020. Investors are navigating between technological euphoria, geopolitical worries, and signs of overheating in valuations.

📉 Weekly market performance

April 2026 will go down in market history: the S&P 500 gained more than 10% over the month, its best monthly performance since November 2020, and the Nasdaq crossed the symbolic 25,000 mark for the first time. Wall Street had just closed its fifth consecutive weekly gain when the new week opened on geopolitical nerves. On the CAC 40, sector divergences were sharp: STMicroelectronics jumped +6.1%, Airbus +5.4%, and Capgemini +3.94%, boosted by AI and defence themes, while Stellantis tumbled -9.19%, weighed down by U.S. threats to reinstate 25% tariffs on European auto imports. Eurofins Scientific fell -4.5% and LVMH -4.29%, with luxury still penalised by slowing Chinese consumption. Special mention to two atypical moves earlier in the week: Casino (+44%) and Soitec (+21%) had spectacular sessions on capital and earnings announcements.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

Oil remained the week’s red thread. Brent oscillated between $102 and $109 per barrel, its highest in nearly four years, driven by a combination of factors: verbal escalation and exchanges of fire between Americans and Iranians near the Strait of Hormuz, Washington’s launch of “Project Freedom” naval escort operation, and most importantly the institutional earthquake of the United Arab Emirates announcing its withdrawal from OPEC, in disagreement with Riyadh on production strategy. WTI traded around $105. Gold, on the other hand, eased -1.42% to $4,613.52 per ounce, sanctioned by profit-taking after several months of gains. European natural gas (TTF) climbed back above €45/MWh, lifted by geopolitical tensions and a cooler-than-expected spring.

🏦 Central banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve held its policy rate in the 3.50% – 3.75% range, but the vote made waves: 8 to 4, the deepest committee fracture since 1992. Three members wanted to remove dovish language and another argued for an immediate cut. Most importantly, this was the last meeting chaired by Jerome Powell, who is handing over to Kevin Warsh in mid-May. Considered a hawk, Warsh advocates for aggressive balance sheet reduction and much more restrained communication. His first meeting on June 16-17 has now become the most awaited event of the year for markets.

The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.00% (refi at 2.15%, marginal lending at 2.40%) but explicitly acknowledged that inflation risks linked to the Middle East war have “intensified”. A telling detail: a rate hike was actively discussed. German inflation rose back to 2.9%. The IMF now expects 50 basis points of ECB hikes in 2026, and markets are pricing in up to 75 basis points, with the first hike possible as early as June. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, the Bank of Japan at 0.75% while sharply revising upward its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.8%.

📊 Macro data

The U.S. employment report released Friday May 8 showed 178,000 job creations in April, with unemployment stable at 4.3% — a labour market more resilient than expected despite recession fears tied to expensive oil. In the U.S., March PCE inflation (released late April) came in at 2.7%. Consumer confidence (Conference Board) edged lower. In Europe, eurozone GDP growth posted +0.3% in Q1 2026 according to first estimates. In China, industrial profits surged +15.8% in March, lifted by tech and exports. The Japanese yen abruptly rallied from 160 to 156.7 against the dollar — a likely intervention by Tokyo.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

The week confirmed Bitcoin’s institutional resilience. BTC closed around $78,700 – $81,000, gaining +1.5% to +3% depending on the measurement point, lifted by massive inflows into spot ETFs. On May 4 alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $532 million in net flows, and nearly $1 billion over two trading sessions. For the week, more than $1.1 billion; for April, $4.07 billion — the best month since October 2025. Cumulative inflows since launch now reach $59.7 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone holding $63 billion in assets. Ethereum meanwhile continues to flounder at $2,284 (-1.9%), stuck below the $2,400 resistance. The Fear & Greed index moved back into “Greed” zone at 68. On the corporate treasury side, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced new purchases bringing its position above 720,000 BTC.

💱 Currencies

EUR/USD trades around $1.17 (+0.11% on the week), supported by expectations of a faster ECB tightening cycle than the Fed. The dollar index (DXY) eased -0.4%. The Japanese yen was the FX event of the week, with a brutal move from 160 to 156.7 against the dollar, attributed to a coordinated Tokyo intervention. The British pound remained stable around $1.36. Emerging market crosses (Brazilian real, Mexican peso) are under pressure from expensive oil.

📈 Investment themes & analysis

Three major themes dominate this week’s newsletters. First, artificial intelligence remains the mother of all market battles. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose in 22 of the last 25 sessions and now shows +60% year-to-date. Samsung Electronics crossed the $1 trillion market capitalisation mark, joining the very exclusive club of tech giants. Apple gained +3.3% on its quarterly results, Atlassian +30%, Reddit +13%.

Second, sector rotation is starting to materialise. Several newsletters (MoneyRadar, Cercle Privé Panthéon) recommend a shift toward energy and its infrastructure (which benefit from expensive oil), financials (banks, Visa, Mastercard, S&P Global, Moody’s), and industrial cyclicals. The idea: broaden the rally beyond mega-cap tech alone to reduce exposure to extreme valuations.

Third, alternative investment ideas are emerging. MoneyRadar highlights Kraken Robotics, a Canadian pure-play in underwater drones (defence + subsea telecoms) targeting $165-175 million in revenue in 2026 (+65%). The Club des Investisseurs Indépendants (Félix Baron) explores several angles around French AI accessible via PEA, and “anomalies” in the global AI supply chain. Hectarea promotes investment in French farmland as a defensive alternative.

🧠 Editorial / Educational corner

The week’s most striking analysis comes from MoneyRadar, which devotes a long-form piece to the “Sell in May?” debate. The bears’ case rests on three pillars: a Shiller ratio (CAPE) above 41, comparable only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 peak; oil at levels historically precursor to recessions (1973, 1979, 1990, 2008); and stress signals in private credit, a market of more than $1.8 trillion where defaults are starting to climb. The bulls counter with the actual quality of earnings (Q1 profit growth of +18% versus +14.4% expected), the statistics of bull markets older than three years (which generally last several more years), and sector rotation as an alternative to a complete exit.

The educational conclusion is valuable: for the long-term investor adding regularly, selling makes no sense — trying to time the market is statistically a losing strategy. For profiles whose exposure has become abnormally high, May is a good time to rebalance rather than liquidate. Discipline — no capital needed in the short term, no excessive concentration, no leverage — remains the number one factor of market survival.

🔭 Observed trends

Several dynamics are reinforcing or reversing. The extreme concentration on semiconductors and AI is reaching levels that dangerously echo 2000 — a fragility factor if a reversal ever materialises. The stocks/oil correlation, long negative, is turning positive in certain sectors (energy, defence). The Fed/ECB decoupling is reversing: for the first time in a long time, Europe is perceived as more restrictive than the United States, supporting the euro. Finally, Bitcoin’s institutionalisation hits a new milestone with nearly $60 billion in cumulative spot ETF assets — the BTC/Nasdaq correlation is weakening, the sign of an asset maturing into its own asset class. The major unknown for June remains Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.