Weekly Financial News — April 4, 2026

🌍 Dominant Theme of the Week

The week of March 28 to April 4, 2026 will be remembered as one of the most volatile in years, entirely driven by the US-Iran military conflict. Now entering its second month, this conflict has profoundly reshaped global markets on multiple fronts simultaneously: a major oil shock with the Strait of Hormuz partially blocked, sharply rising inflation, a complete reversal of rate expectations, and a brutal sector rotation. World stock markets went on a rollercoaster ride, alternating between strong rally sessions fuelled by peace negotiation rumours and sharp pullbacks triggered by new threats or diplomatic denials. The weekly balance was ultimately positive for Western markets, thanks to a Bloomberg report that Teheran and Oman were holding talks over the Strait of Hormuz.

📉 Weekly Market Performance

This weekly gain must be seen against a very difficult underlying backdrop: the S&P 500 had just posted five consecutive weeks of losses — its worst run since 2022. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones were officially in correction territory (down more than 10% from their peaks). Notable CAC 40 movers: Thales +12.44%, Stellantis +11.87%, Euronext +8.23%, Pernod Ricard -2.6%, EssilorLuxottica -1.82%.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

Brent Crude closed at $109.19 (+0.7% over 7 days), with intraday spikes above $112. WTI crossed $100/barrel for the first time since 2022. The partial Strait of Hormuz blockade (20% of global oil) and Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities (17% of global LNG capacity) explain these price levels. In Los Angeles, gasoline surpassed $8.29/gallon. Gold closed at $4,672.02 (+5.05%) but remains far from its $5,589 January high after its worst week since 1983 (-11% intra-month). JPMorgan targets $6,300 by end-2026. Aluminium surged +4.7% to $3,453/tonne.

🏦 Central Banks

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Powell called the oil shock “temporary” and preferred a wait-and-see approach. But the OECD revised its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2% (vs the Fed’s own 2.7%). Money markets now price a 52%-60% probability of a rate hike by year-end — a stunning reversal from late February when two cuts were expected. The 10-year Treasury rose to 4.44%. The ECB holds rates (deposit at 2.00%), with Lagarde warning that a hike may be necessary. Next ECB meeting: April 30. The Bank of Japan holds at 0.75% with the yen near the critical 160 ¥/$ level.

📊 Macroeconomic Data

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading fell to 53.3 (vs 56.6 in February), lowest since late 2025. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8%. March NFP (released Good Friday, markets closed) was expected to rebound from February’s disastrous -92,000. Unemployment rate: 4.3%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment and eurozone Retail Sales all came in above estimates. Germany continues deploying its €500 billion 10-year investment programme.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin traded between $65,000 and $67,800 with a technical bounce at week’s end. Total crypto market cap: ~$2.34 trillion. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) broke its 13-week consecutive buying streak with zero purchases. US spot Bitcoin ETFs maintained slightly positive flows (+1.5% of assets). Q1 2026: ~$500M net outflows overall, but March alone saw $1.32B in inflows. Key BTC buy zones: $56,000-$58,000 (zone 1), $47,600-$50,300 (zone 2). ETH zones: $1,750-$1,890 and $1,370-$1,530.

💱 Currencies

The euro strengthened to $1.15 (+0.21% over 7 days), reflecting a slight easing of geopolitical tensions. The Japanese yen is flirting with the critical 160 ¥/$ threshold — historically a level that has triggered Bank of Japan FX intervention.

📈 Investment Themes & Analysis

Alphabet (GOOGL): Analysed by MoneyRadar as an opportunity. Stock trades ~$274 (-21% from high), forward P/E of 17x (cheapest of the Magnificent 7). Consensus of 45 analysts: “Strong Buy”, average target $351, Wells Fargo at $397. TurboQuant (AI memory divided by 6) = major competitive advantage. Results: April 28. Magnificent 7: Microsoft -23.4% YTD, Nvidia -21% (bear market), Apple -5% (resilient thanks to buybacks). S&P 500 Equal Weight (-2.4% YTD) far outperforms cap-weighted version (-7%). Alternative commodities: urea (fertiliser) regains appeal in an inflationary environment. Defensive French value: Thales +12.44% on the week confirms the rotation toward defence and security stocks.

🧠 Editorial / Education

MoneyRadar published “Is the stock market a casino?” — deconstructing this widespread myth. A share = an ownership stake in a company, not a bet. What resembles a casino is the way the tool is used (emotional trading, short-termism). Investing long-term in ETFs = participating in the real economy. Key stat: after a weekly S&P 500 decline greater than 5%, the following week is positive in 62% of cases since 1980.

🔭 Observed Trends

Sector rotation is accelerating toward defensives and energy, away from tech. The stock-bond correlation has broken (worst 60/40 March since 2022). The key variable for the coming weeks: the Iran ultimatum of April 6. A deal = violent market rebound (oil below $85); escalation = stagflation scenario. Markets are not asking for a perfect agreement — just a signal.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.