Weekly Financial News — June 12, 2026

🌍 Dominant theme of the week

A rollercoaster week for global markets, driven by three major forces. First, a violent purge in technology stocks: the Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst session since the April 2025 tariff shock on Friday June 5 (−4.77%), triggered by a far-too-strong US jobs report (172,000 jobs created versus roughly 85,000 expected) that buried hopes of Fed rate cuts. Second, geopolitics: Israel-Iran tensions propped up oil early in the week before a spectacular reversal — Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that a deal with Iran was close (the Dow jumped roughly 900 points), then declared on Friday that “the war is over.” Finally, the event of the week, if not the decade: SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, which made its debut on the Nasdaq on Friday June 12 under the ticker SPCX, with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion — unprecedented in market history.

📉 Weekly market performance

After the early-week purge (the Nasdaq 100 had lost as much as 7.3% from its June 3 record, and the semiconductor sector 12.5%), indices rebounded violently on Thursday and Friday on Middle East peace hopes and the success of the SpaceX IPO. Thursday June 11: Nasdaq 100 +3.29% to 29,446, S&P 500 +1.75% to 7,394, Dow Jones +1.86% to 50,849, Russell 2000 +3%.

In Paris, over the week preceding the purge: STMicroelectronics +6.56%, Danone +5.71%, Dassault Systèmes +4.84%; on the downside, Stellantis and Renault −9.4% each, Accor −3.49%. In the US, semiconductors were the epicenter of the quake: Marvell −16%, Micron −13%, Broadcom −7% in the June 5 session — roughly $1 trillion of market capitalization wiped out. The VIX spiked 40%, from 15.40 to 21.51.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

Oil had a week in two acts. Initially supported by Israel-Iran tensions, Brent peaked near $92.91 before falling back to $88.45 on Friday morning (−0.75% on the session), as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal deflated the geopolitical risk premium. This easing in oil directly fueled the late-week return of risk appetite.

Gold disappointed safe-haven seekers: despite the geopolitics, the yellow metal fell about 4.8% in the week of June 5 (to $4,322.8) and continued sliding on Friday to $4,179 (−0.95%), with wild ±3% sessions along the way. Dollar strength and rising bond yields (US 10-year near 4.55%, 2-year at 4.17%, its highest since February 2025) are weighing on the precious metal.

🏦 Central banks

A historic sequence from the ECB: on Thursday June 11, the Frankfurt institution raised its three key rates by 25 basis points — the first hike since September 2023. The deposit rate moves to 2.25%, the refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%. The trigger: eurozone inflation back up to 3.2% in May, boosted by energy prices. Markets are now pricing a possible second hike as early as September.

On the Fed side, rates have been held at 3.50–3.75% for three consecutive meetings, and next week’s FOMC — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh — is expected to leave rates unchanged (hold probability estimated between 70% and 97% across sources during the week). The striking development: after the jobs report and the hot CPI print, markets began pricing a rate hike by year-end — a complete reversal of the easing narrative that prevailed until recently.

📊 Macro data

Two releases dominated the week. First, the May US jobs report: 172,000 jobs created versus roughly 85,000 expected, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and persistent wage pressures. A textbook case of “good news is bad news”: the economy is doing too well for the Fed to ease.

Then the May US CPI, released Wednesday June 10: +0.5% on the month and +4.2% year-over-year — the highest since April 2023 — driven by a 3.9% monthly jump in energy prices (+23.5% over twelve months), a direct consequence of the energy shock tied to Middle East tensions. One silver lining: core CPI came in below expectations at +0.2% monthly and +2.9% year-over-year, a sign that underlying pressures remain contained. Markets initially sold off before reconsidering. Due Friday: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

A difficult week for digital assets, which went through their most severe correction since February 2026. Bitcoin fell from an intra-week peak of about $72,840 to nearly $64,100 (−12%), dragged down by the same risk-off move as tech. On Friday morning it was rebounding about +3.4% in the wake of the end-of-conflict announcement. Ethereum dropped toward $1,620–1,690 before reopening Friday around $1,672 (+3.2%).

The most worrying signal comes from flows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded record outflows — roughly $1.72 billion in the week ended June 6 and nearly $4.4 billion over thirteen days, the worst streak since their January 2024 launch. The late-week price rebound is therefore not yet confirmed by institutional flows, which calls for caution about its durability.

💱 Currencies

The dollar stayed firm all week, supported by expectations of US monetary tightening. EUR/USD touched a two-month low and stood at 1.1571 on Friday, after losing 1.08% the previous week. GBP/USD traded at 1.3403 and USD/JPY hovered just above 160 yen (160.31). A notable paradox: the ECB’s rate hike was not enough to support the euro against a dollar boosted by the prospect of durably high US rates.

📈 Investment themes & analysis

The SpaceX IPO, the market event of the century. Priced at $135 per share, $75 billion raised (versus $25bn for Alibaba in 2014 and $29.4bn for Saudi Aramco in 2019), an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion: every record falls. The newsletters highlight several specifics: a deliberately tight float (only 3–5% of capital), index rules rewritten in May 2026 allowing Nasdaq 100 inclusion after just 15 trading days (versus 3 months previously), and mechanical ETF inflows estimated at $15–30 billion in a conservative scenario. The real economic engine is not the rockets but Starlink, already profitable with over 4 million subscribers. Risks abound: a $4.28 billion GAAP net loss in Q1 2026, a valuation exceeding the entire global aerospace sector, governance concentrated in Elon Musk’s hands, and “sell the news” as the central scenario. Among the strategies discussed, the “15-day window” (waiting for a 15–30% post-IPO correction before mandatory ETF buying kicks in) is seen as offering the best risk/reward — without forgetting that not participating is also a strategy.

Oracle and the AI doubt. Oracle’s results on Wednesday evening revived questions about the profitability of the AI investment frenzy, accelerating the semiconductor correction. One dizzying figure: ten AI-related stocks now account for roughly 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Also of note: Marvell’s S&P 500 inclusion effective June 22, a catalyst for passive buying, and speculation around Italian banking mergers.

Sector rotation. Managers rotated out of tech into healthcare and cyclicals — UnitedHealth is cited as a typical defensive play in this fund “derisking” environment.

🧠 Editorial / Education

This week’s lesson is about the psychology of corrections. As a Schwab analysis relayed by Humbled Trader put it: a 5–10% pullback in a bull market is “textbook” behavior — worth watching, not panicking over — especially after a +20.6% S&P 500 rally off the March low without a single pause. A VIX above 20 signals bigger daily swings, not necessarily a trend change. On the IPO front, MoneyRadar stresses discipline in the face of FOMO: only invest what you can afford to lose, keep a safety cushion, and remember that the best entry points on an IPO often come 6 to 18 months after listing.

🔭 Observed trends

Three inflections are worth tracking. One: the rate regime has changed — in a few weeks the market has moved from anticipating cuts to pricing a possible Fed hike by the end of 2026, with the ECB now in a tightening cycle. Two: the semiconductor correction (−12.5% from June 3 at its worst) is the first serious test of the AI narrative in months; the late-week rebound will tell whether this was healthy consolidation or a reversal. Three: the crypto/equity decorrelation happened on the downside — Bitcoin fell more than the Nasdaq, and record ETF outflows suggest institutional distrust that contrasts with the equity rebound. Meanwhile, SPCX’s entry into the indices by the end of June could create unprecedented mechanical moves in passive investing.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.