Weekly Financial News — May 22, 2026

🌍 Dominant Theme of the Week

The week of May 15-22, 2026 was defined by a genuine tug-of-war between two forces: on one side, unwavering enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, still propelling tech valuations toward new highs; on the other, the bond market and inflation, whose warning signals piled up. The April U.S. inflation prints — CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and PPI at 6.0%, their highest readings since 2022-2023 — bluntly reminded investors that the path of rate cuts is off the table.

The other key event was the confirmation by the U.S. Senate (54-45, with one Democrat joining all Republicans) of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve. His term began May 15, succeeding Jerome Powell whose mandate ended. Warsh, chosen by the Trump administration in part to engineer rate cuts, paradoxically inherits a FOMC in no mood to ease as inflation reaccelerates. Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions tied to the war in Iran — keeping oil bid via the Strait of Hormuz — and a Trump state visit to China, markets oscillated between profit-taking and AI-led rebounds.

📉 Weekly Market Performance

The intraweek sequence was particularly turbulent: indices reached new all-time highs mid-week before a brutal Friday May 15 selloff triggered by the inflation prints. The following week (May 18-22), Wall Street strung together three losing sessions before a sharp Wednesday-Thursday rebound, lifted by Nvidia earnings anticipation and a pullback in oil. The Nasdaq 100 saw a statistically rare event: only its second consecutive two-day decline since late March.

Notable CAC 40 movers (week ending May 15)

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

Oil remained the headline commodity of the week. Persistent tensions around the Iran war and a still-difficult situation in the Strait of Hormuz — where a major share of global crude transits — kept Brent above $105 per barrel. Cumulative crude appreciation since the conflict began now exceeds 10%. A respite occurred on May 20 with a notable pullback, linked to tentative signs of geopolitical easing and profit-taking.

Gold corrected after several weeks of vigorous gains, in a profit-taking move as U.S. bond yields surged again — a structurally less favorable environment for the yellow metal, which pays no interest.

🏦 Central Banks

Major event of the week: Kevin Warsh is now officially the new Chair of the Federal Reserve. Confirmed by the Senate 54-45 (one Democrat joining all Republicans), he succeeds Jerome Powell whose term ended May 15. While Warsh was selected by the Trump administration partly to accelerate monetary easing, he inherits a divided FOMC that leans hawkish in the face of rebounding prices.

The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, released May 20, confirmed this climate: a majority of members believe a rate hike could be warranted if the Middle East conflict continues to drive inflation higher. Markets adjusted accordingly: per CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike by December 2026 rose to 25% (up from 21.5% earlier in the week). The 2026 rate-cut scenario is now largely off the table.

On the euro area front, expectations also lean toward firmness. Markets now price three ECB rate hikes by year-end, with the first expected at the June meeting. The inflation differential across the Atlantic is narrowing, and European sovereign yields are partly tracking their U.S. counterparts higher.

📊 Macro Data

The big surprise came from U.S. price indices published at the end of the week of May 15:

• U.S. CPI (April): +3.8% year-over-year, the fastest pace since May 2023 — above the 3.7% consensus.
• Core CPI: +0.4% monthly, +2.8% annual, both prints above expectations.
• U.S. PPI: +6.0% year-over-year (versus 4.3% prior), the largest jump since late 2022. Monthly: +1.4%.
• Core PPI: +5.2% annual.

Energy accounts for over 40% of the recent rise in inflation, a direct consequence of the Iran conflict. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index has fallen to its lowest level since the survey’s inception in 1952. In the euro area, Q1 GDP rose only +0.1%, near stagnation, also weighed down by energy prices. In Japan, the equity market continues to post the best performance among major global markets, up +13.3% year-to-date.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

The cryptocurrency market continued to benefit from sustained institutional appetite. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs strung together a fifth consecutive week of positive flows, absorbing nearly $1 billion in just two trading days in early May. As of May 4, net flows across all Bitcoin ETFs reached $532 million, of which $335 million flowed into BlackRock’s IBIT and $184 million into Fidelity’s FBTC. Cumulative net inflows since launch now exceed $59.7 billion, and IBIT alone holds roughly two-thirds of spot assets, with approximately $63 billion under management.

On the corporate side, treasury Bitcoin holdings reached 1.15 million BTC in Q1 2026 (+4.6% quarter-over-quarter), with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), MARA, and Metaplanet leading accumulation. This structural dynamic creates a persistent bid floor that progressively decouples price action from short-term speculative dynamics. Bitcoin benefited from the broadly positive AI mood without surging.

💱 Currencies

The euro extended its correction against the dollar, with the growth differential between the two zones and expectations of a strong dollar in a Fed-hike scenario weighing on the European currency. U.S. 10-year yields approached 4.46%, while 30-year yields breached the symbolic 5.02% threshold for the first time in months.

📈 Investment Themes & Analyses

Several sector analyses caught attention this week. The most structured one centers on NextEra Energy (NEE), highlighted by MoneyRadar as “stock of the week.” The group reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.09 (+10% year-over-year), with 2026 guidance raised to $3.92-4.01 (+8%). Its renewables backlog reached a record 30 GW (15 GW added in 2025) and its data-center pipeline grew from 50 GW at end-2025 to over 60 GW in April 2026. On May 18, NextEra announced an all-stock merger with Dominion Energy that would create a 110 GW giant serving 49 U.S. states, with a pro forma market cap of approximately $247 billion. A 25-year deal signed with Google to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant further illustrates the growing coupling between nuclear power and hyperscalers.

On the U.S. tech front, Cisco (CSCO around $118) hit fresh record highs after a strong quarterly print, the market recognizing its AI infrastructure positioning. Amazon (AMZN, ~$264) benefited from a burst on AWS/AI momentum before pausing. Rocket Lab (RKLB) delivered a Q1 beat, announced the acquisition of Motiv Space Systems, and secured a $30 million hypersonic test contract with Anduril.

The headline event remained Nvidia, with earnings expected Wednesday evening May 20 (revenue consensus: $78.76 billion), with decisive weight on broad market sentiment.

🧠 Editorial / Pedagogy

Nicolas Cheron’s newsletter devoted its issue to the three lessons of François Rochon, a Quebec-based Warren Buffett disciple and founder of Giverny Capital. His track record speaks for itself: +8,563% cumulative performance since 1993, or 15% per year over 32 years, outperforming the Canadian index by +5.3% annualized. An initial $100,000 would have grown to $8.7 million, versus $1.9 million for a passive investment in the Canadian index.

His three investor virtues: rationality, humility, patience. His method: ROE above 15%, EPS growth above 10%, debt below 4× annual profits, durable competitive moat of at least 5 years, purchase at half of estimated 5-year value. His portfolio comprises around 20 positions out of 125 global companies meeting his criteria.

Reassuring data for investors: across the 16 largest S&P 500 drawdowns since 1956, the average decline is -32%, followed by an average +126% rally in the five years after the bottom. The 1987 crash (-36%) was followed by +127%, the 2000-2002 dot-com bubble (-50%) by +122%, the 2008 financial crisis (-56%) by +207%, and Covid (-35%) by +163%. Only one of these 16 sequences failed to reach a new all-time high within five years.

🔭 Observed Trends

Several structural trends accelerated this week. Sector rotation: the market now alternates daily between defensive bonds and tech offense, a sign of deep indecision about the coming macro regime. Higher-for-longer rates: with the U.S. 30-year above 5% and the 10-year close to 4.5%, the most stretched equity valuations (tech, AI, growth names) are mechanically more vulnerable.

One analytical argument deserves mention: the thesis that inflation could paradoxically “pop” the AI bubble. The reasoning: Meta depends ~100% on advertising revenue, Google ~75%. If inflation erodes consumer purchasing power (U.S. wages no longer keeping up with prices for the first time in three years), consumption weakens, ad budgets shrink, big tech revenues drop, and valuations pay the price. The 2022 parallel is cited: at the time, consumer spending growth fell 70%, and the tech sector lost ~30% versus -20% for the S&P 500.

On the institutional crypto front, buying flows remain massive and stable, creating an unprecedented structural absorption effect. On commodities, the energy/geopolitics couple remains the main driver, with markets learning to price an Iran risk now perceived as persistent.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.