Weekly Financial News — July 11, 2026

🌍 Dominant Theme of the Week

The week of July 3–10, 2026 was ruled by geopolitics. After a euphoric start that extended late June’s cascade of European records, renewed tension between the United States and Iran abruptly changed the picture: on July 8, the two countries exchanged airstrikes and President Trump declared the existing ceasefire over, triggering a surge in oil prices, a sharp pullback in risk assets and a spike in volatility. The last two sessions of the week, however, brought relief: Middle East fears eased, oil cooled off and investors returned to buy the dip. Two other engines drove markets in parallel: the revival of semiconductors, boosted by Micron’s massive investment plan and SK Hynix’s capital raise, and the release of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting minutes under Chair Kevin Warsh, confirming a cautious, guidance-free stance that markets read as hawkish.

📉 Weekly Market Performance

The week traced a spectacular round trip: records early in the week, a sharp correction on Tuesday and Wednesday as the US-Iran escalation unfolded, then a rebound on Thursday and Friday. Closing levels as of Thursday, July 9 (source: Société Générale / Zonebourse newsletters):

European bourses were expected to open higher on Friday morning, helped by bargain hunting after the heavy mid-week selloff. As a reminder, the previous week had ended with clear European outperformance (DAX +3.69%, FTSE MIB +2.27%, CAC 40 +1.07%), driven by cooling eurozone inflation. Among French stocks, the event of the week was the announcement of a simplified tender offer for Voyageurs du Monde at €180 per share — a 23.7% premium to the last price: the founders and their partners, grouped in the Avantage holding company (86.44% of the capital), are targeting a delisting after an offer expected in the autumn.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

Oil was the barometer asset of the week. On July 8, as the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran collapsed, WTI jumped 4–5% toward $74 a barrel. The diplomatic de-escalation of the following days then cooled markets down: on Friday morning, Brent traded around $76.21 (+0.38% on the session), far from panic highs. Notably, the late-week slide in crude fuelled a decline in US bond yields and a Treasury rally. Gold, the archetypal safe haven in this environment, remains perched at historically elevated levels around $4,114 an ounce (-0.21% on Thursday), supported by a persistent geopolitical premium and US monetary uncertainty.

🏦 Central Banks

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, keenly awaited after the removal of the traditional “dot plot” and the shortening of the policy statement. The policy rate remains at 3.50–3.75%, unchanged since December 2025, but nine of the eighteen FOMC members projected in June at least one rate hike by year-end. At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Warsh called prices “too high” while refusing any commitment on the future path — a posture markets interpret as hawkish ahead of the July 28–29 meeting. In the eurozone, the drop in inflation to 2.8% in June (from 3.2% in May) markedly reduces pressure on the ECB. Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China introduced new overnight liquidity operations — a technical refinement rather than broad easing — while in Japan, the strongest Tankan survey since 2018 and a yen at its weakest in nearly forty years are fuelling speculation of an intervention by the authorities.

📊 Macro Data

In the United States, the June jobs report confirmed a cooling labour market: only 57,000 non-farm payrolls were added, well below expectations, with prior months revised lower, and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Consumer confidence remains subdued and manufacturing activity is expanding at a slower pace. These figures temper the Fed-tightening scenario, ahead of the June CPI release on July 14. In the eurozone, beyond inflation at 2.8%, unemployment held steady at 6.2% and German retail sales surprised to the upside. In the UK, first-quarter GDP was confirmed at +0.6% and house prices rose 2.2% year-on-year according to Nationwide; the Starmer government also announced an extra £15 billion for defence over four years. In China, June PMIs signalled manufacturing activity returning to expansion.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin traded this week in a range of $62,000 to $63,500, far below its October 2025 record (around $126,000). The key development is the still-fragile turnaround in US spot ETF flows: after a disastrous June (-$4.5 billion in net outflows, the worst month since launch, including -$3.55 billion for BlackRock’s IBIT alone) and an eighth consecutive negative week through July 2 (-$527 million), three consecutive sessions of net inflows totalled roughly $510 million between July 2 and July 7, ending a ten-day, $2.73 billion outflow streak. The most significant signal came on July 6, when IBIT took in $209.4 million, suggesting a return of institutional capital rather than mere tactical dip-buying. The relapse toward $62,000 on July 8, on the Iran-US escalation, is a reminder of the asset’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk. ETF complex assets have fallen to roughly $74.4 billion (versus more than $150 billion at the peak), Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000, and Glassnode estimates the average ETF investor entry price at $83,800 — an average unrealised loss of about 26%. The two upcoming referees: the July 14 CPI and the July 28–29 FOMC.

💱 Currencies

EUR/USD trades around 1.1444 (+0.10% Friday morning), still judged “under pressure” by Société Générale’s experts against a hawkish Fed backdrop. GBP/USD stands at 1.3430. The most spectacular move remains the yen’s: at 161.5 per dollar (-0.50% on Friday), the Japanese currency hit its weakest level in nearly forty years before rebounding on speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities.

📈 Investment Themes & Analysis

Three themes dominate this week’s analysis. First, the comeback of semiconductors: Micron’s announcement of a $25 billion, ten-year domestic investment plan and SK Hynix’s $28 billion raise revived the thesis that the AI build-out remains in its early innings — Monday’s session was effectively played “on South Korean time”. Conversely, the AI trade unwind continues in hyperscalers: according to analysis relayed by IBKR, quantitative funds have just endured their worst run since August, and the market no longer rewards mere spending announcements. Second, sector rotation: old-economy and previously unloved stocks are outperforming (“the last shall be first”), and Seasonax highlights the seasonal pattern favouring healthcare in the third quarter. Finally, special situations remain fertile ground in Europe, as illustrated by the Voyageurs du Monde tender offer at €180. Also worth noting, Money Radar’s critical take on OpenAI’s proposal to hand 5% of its equity to the US government, read as a political insurance strategy rather than an altruistic gesture.

🧠 Editorial / Learning Corner

Two pedagogical lessons stand out from the newsletters. MasterBourse, as it closes out its investment in Voyageurs du Monde (roughly +30% a year over three years), restates its framework: favour well-managed, resilient market leaders with high profitability and strong cash generation — qualities that let investors ignore short-term volatility, even though a minority shareholder “never chooses their exit”. On the crypto side, the week’s lesson concerns ETF flow mechanics: one big isolated inflow does not make a trend; it is persistent redemptions, platform by platform, that set the market regime, and several consecutive creation days at the largest issuers are needed to validate a reversal.

🔭 Observed Trends

Compared with previous weeks, three dynamics are firming up: European outperformance is taking hold, driven by disinflation and the defence theme; the rotation out of US mega-cap tech into old-economy names, value stocks and now “physical” semiconductors is strengthening; and Middle East geopolitical risk is asserting itself as a recurring but so far cyclical factor — each flare-up followed by rapid de-escalation and dip-buying. Meanwhile, the structural outflow trend in Bitcoin ETFs is showing its first signs of inflection, though without confirmation at this stage. Volatility, for its part, looks durably back — “long live volatility”, as Zonebourse quipped on Friday.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.