Weekly Financial News — October 2, 2026

🌍 Dominant theme of the week

The week of September 28 to October 2, 2026 was dominated by strain in bond markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield held near 5.25%, the French 10-year OAT yield rose close to 5% amid budget worries, and European equities fell to a three-and-a-half-month low during the week. On Friday, a US jobs report far weaker than expected (29,000 jobs added against 90,000 forecast) pushed back bets on a Fed rate hike in October, while the G7’s announcement of a 100-million-barrel release pushed oil lower. The Nasdaq ends the week higher, while the CAC 40 and the Dow Jones fall.

📉 Weekly market performance

Closes of Friday, October 2, 2026 and weekly change.

Changes calculated on the September 25 closes. STOXX 600: 631.34 according to Trading Economics, or -1.12% from the previous edition’s base of 638.5; other readings give -1.14% and -1.21%. S&P 500: Yahoo Finance post-close level (TheStreet gives 7,722.93). Nikkei 225: close of 68,309.46 points according to Trading Economics.

• Wall Street rebounds Friday after a disappointing US jobs report – The Nasdaq gained 1.19% on Friday and the Dow Jones 0.49% after a weaker-than-expected jobs report, according to Yahoo Finance. Over the week, the Nasdaq rose 0.45% while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones fell 0.27% and 1.26%. Nvidia hit an intraday record of $237.87.
• The CAC 40 rebounds but loses 2.24% over the week – It closed at 7,897.19 points, up 0.79% on Friday, lifted by lower oil after the G7 announcement, according to BFM Bourse. Soitec (+7.66%), STMicroelectronics (+6.54%) and Schneider Electric (+3.55%) led the gainers, with Clariane (-5.58%), SMCP (-3.46%) and Sanofi (-3.1%) among the decliners. The STOXX 600 ended at 631.34 points after a three-and-a-half-month low, according to Trading Economics.
• The Nikkei gains almost 3% over the week – The index ended at 68,309.46 points on Friday, down 0.94%, after a 3.3% jump on Thursday linked to Micron’s results, according to Trading Economics and Business Recorder. It posts a third straight weekly gain. SoftBank fell almost 6% after completing its final $10 billion tranche of investment in OpenAI.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

• Brent slips back near $100 after the G7 announcement – G7 countries announced on Friday the release of 100 million barrels of diesel and other oil products over four months, with a substantial diesel release in the first 20 days, according to The National. Brent was down between 0.8% and 1.8% depending on the reading, around $100 to $101.5 a barrel against about $105 a week earlier, and WTI stood between $90.4 and $91.5. US diesel had reached $6.50 a gallon the previous week and the European price a record of 2.24 euros a litre.
• Gold falls over the week despite a Friday rebound – An ounce traded between about $4,140 and $4,220 on Friday depending on the reading, against $4,326.60 for the futures contract a week earlier. Buyers returned after the jobs report, which lowered expectations of a rate hike in October. European gas and aluminium prices could not be verified for this edition.

🏦 Central banks

• Bets on an October Fed hike collapse after the jobs data – After September’s 29,000 job gains, traders now put the probability of an October rate hike at 16%, against 64% a week earlier, according to Yahoo Finance. The FOMC meets on October 27 and 28. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole that the central bank would have work to do if inflation did not move toward its target quickly enough.
• The ECB faces 3.8% inflation in September – Eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% year on year, against 3.2% in August and 3.6% expected, with energy up 18.8%, according to Eurostat and CNBC. Christine Lagarde said on September 28 that measured rate hikes remained appropriate, according to Reuters. Deutsche Bank doubts the ECB can raise rates as fast as anticipated, according to FXStreet, and the next meeting is scheduled for October 29.
• The Bank of Japan gets relief from a mixed Tankan survey – The index for large manufacturers rose from 22 to 24 in the third quarter, a sixth straight rise but below the 25 expected, according to Nikkei Asia and news wires. Corporate inflation expectations stayed high without accelerating. That eases pressure for another immediate rate hike.
• The Bank of England has no meeting this week – Its next decision is scheduled for November 5, according to central bank calendars. The 10-year gilt yield fell back below 5.38% after touching a level not seen since mid-2007, according to FXStreet.

📊 Macro data

• US job gains fall to 29,000 in September – The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 29,000 added jobs, against 90,000 expected, and cut 60,000 jobs from its July and August revisions. Unemployment rose to 4.2% against 4.1% expected, and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year. The participation rate stayed at 61.8%.
• August PCE comes in softer than expected, growth revised up – The PCE price index rose 3.4% year on year in August and its core measure 3.0%, well below estimates, according to CNBC. Second-quarter US GDP was revised to 2.2% annualised from 1.5%, according to Yahoo Finance. Second-quarter PCE inflation was revised down to 5.0%.
• US manufacturing slows slightly while prices surge – The ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.6 to 54.5 in September, against 55.0 expected, according to the ISM and FXStreet. Its prices-paid subindex jumped 6.8 points to 77.9. August JOLTS job openings stayed near 7.1 million, against roughly 7.2 million expected.
• Tokyo inflation accelerates to 2.7% in September – According to Trading Economics, Tokyo core inflation exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months. FXStreet gives the same 2.7% figure, against 1.9% expected.
• France posts the lowest inflation in the eurozone – French harmonised inflation reached 3.4% in September, the lowest among the 21 euro area countries, against 3.8% for the bloc as a whole, according to Eurostat. Bulgaria was highest at 5.6%.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin climbs back toward $86,000 at the end of the week – Bitcoin traded between roughly $85,000 and $86,700 on Friday depending on the reading, against $83,800 to $84,000 a week earlier, after a wave of short liquidations and falling yields, according to Yahoo Finance. Citigroup raised its 12-month forecast from $82,000 to $113,000, according to Bitcoin.com. Ether moved between $2,705 and $2,747 on Friday, against $2,690 to $2,710 the previous week.
• Bitcoin funds log outflows on Wednesday, inflows on Thursday – US-listed spot bitcoin funds recorded $148.7 million of outflows on Wednesday, then $102.7 million of inflows on Thursday, according to Cointelegraph. The previous week they had taken in $2.39 billion, their best week since October 2025, according to Bitcoin.com.

💱 Currencies

• The euro hovers near 15-month lows against the dollar – The pair stood near 1.125 dollars on Friday according to Trading Economics, against 1.1394 a week earlier, after falling below 1.13 on Thursday, a 15-month low. FXStreet puts the weekly decline at about 0.8%, with the euro weighed down by the yield gap between France and Germany. The dollar index reached 102.20, its highest since April 2025, before slipping below 102 after the jobs figures.
• Sterling at a three-month low, the yen weakens – GBP/USD fell below 1.3200, its lowest since late June, according to FXStreet. The dollar was worth about 157.66 yen on Friday according to Trading Economics, against 156.88 a week earlier, after dropping below 158 following the jobs report.

📈 Investment themes & analysis

• Weak jobs data feeds hopes of a Fed pause – According to BFM Bourse, markets put the probability of rates being held in October at about 80%. Strategists cited by Boursorama say the surge in yields and progress in the Iran war negotiations could still complicate further tightening.
• France presents a 54-billion-euro savings plan – Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was due to present it to the Council of Ministers on October 1, with a parliamentary vote targeted for November 17, according to TechTimes. The 10-year OAT yield, around 4.9%, is at its highest since 2002 according to FXStreet, and the spread with the Bund has exceeded 130 basis points according to market readings. Berenberg economist Salomon Fiedler calls the budget position unsustainable, according to TechTimes.
• Nike tumbles after disappointing sales and a bleak outlook – The company reported first-quarter revenue of $11.21 billion against $11.32 billion expected, and forecasts a high single-digit percentage decline for fiscal 2027, according to RTE. The shares fell 8.5% in extended trading according to RTE, and 6% according to Yahoo Finance. China sales dropped 26% at constant currency, and job cuts were announced without a number.

🔭 Observed trends

• Long-dated yields remain near multi-year highs – The US 10-year yield stood near 5.25% to 5.28% on Friday, against 5.18% a week earlier, and the 30-year near 5.63%, according to Yahoo Finance and FXStreet. The UK 10-year yield touched a level not seen since mid-2007 before easing.
• Bets on a Fed hike retreat sharply – The previous edition recorded between 69% and 73% probability of an October hike. It is now 16% according to Yahoo Finance, while BFM Bourse cites an 80% probability of rates being held.
• European equities slide while US tech holds up – The STOXX 600 and the CAC 40 lost 1.12% and 2.24% after a gain the previous week, while the Nasdaq is the only major US index higher. The Dow Jones fell 1.26% after a 0.28% gain the previous week.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.

Weekly financial bulletin automatically generated on October 2, 2026.