Weekly Financial News — August 1, 2026

🌍 Dominant theme of the week

The trading week of 27 to 31 July 2026 was governed by three forces. The first was the deflation of the war premium in oil: after the de-escalation signal from Tehran, Brent returned to around 88 dollars a barrel, against more than 100 dollars on 23 July. The second was the market’s verdict on capital spending by the cloud giants, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for tying it to measurable revenue and Meta and Alphabet penalised for failing to establish that link. The third was in bonds: the US 30-year yield reached 5.28%, its highest since 2007, and the market moved from pricing rate cuts to pricing a rate rise in September.

📉 Weekly market performance

Weekly changes in local currency as recorded by T. Rowe Price, measured to the close of Friday 31 July 2026.

• Wall Street closes the week on a technology rebound – The S&P 500 finished 31 July at 7,489.72 points, the Dow Jones at 52,485.03 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,373.85.
• Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for cloud traction – Microsoft gained close to 9% and Amazon more than 8% after results judged convincing on AI monetisation, according to TradingKey.
• Apple and Meta run against the rebound – Apple shed 3% to 4% and Meta about 9.6% after their results according to TradingKey, with the HumbledTrader newsletter recording a weekly fall of 7.3% for Apple, hit by component shortages.
• Kering and Capgemini lead the CAC 40 over the week – Zonebourse records a weekly gain of 17.29% for Kering, 14.04% for Capgemini and 9.6% for Saint-Gobain. At the other end, Hermès lost 6.79%, Veolia 5.79% and Danone 3.54%.

🛢️ Commodities & Energy

• Brent erases part of the war premium – The barrel closed at 87.93 dollars on 31 July according to Trading Economics, down close to 9% over the Monday-to-Friday week and 4.23% on a rolling seven-day basis according to Zonebourse. It still holds a 22.86% gain over the month.
• WTI retreats from the 23 July highs – US crude had dropped 7.5% to 82.61 dollars during the week before recovering to 84.67 dollars on 31 July.
• Gold ends the week slightly lower – Spot gold was quoted at 4,038 dollars an ounce on 31 July according to Fortune, with Zonebourse recording 4,050.76 dollars and a 1.06% fall over seven days. The all-time high dates from 29 January 2026, at 5,597.23 dollars.
• US natural gas extends its summer decompression – The benchmark contract came back to 2.75 dollars per MMBtu on 31 July, down 14.69% over the month and 10.90% over a year.
• Aluminium flat, copper still the engine – Aluminium was almost unchanged at 3,194.65 dollars a tonne on 31 July and copper was quoted at 6.49 dollars a pound, up 46.87% over a year.

🏦 Central banks

• The Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissents – The committee voted 9 to 3 on 29 July to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, a fifth consecutive hold. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented, with inflation above the 2% target for more than five years according to CNN.
• Kevin Warsh shortens the statement and refuses guidance – The Fed chair issued a text markedly shorter than the established norm and restated his hostility to announcing the future path of rates in advance, CNBC reported.
• The market swings to pricing a September rate rise – Implied probabilities differ by instrument: about 80% on fed funds futures according to Forbes, 59.6% on the prediction markets tracked by DeFiRate, and a 60% to 76% range according to the HumbledTrader newsletter.
• The Bank of England holds 3.75% on a split vote – The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6 to 3 to keep the bank rate unchanged, with three members preferring a rise to 4.00%. Andrew Bailey noted that inflation had fallen faster than expected, to 2.6%.
• The Bank of Japan holds 1% and the ECB was off calendar – The BoJ kept its policy rate at 1% by 8 votes to 1, with Hajime Takata arguing for 1.25%. The ECB did not meet: on 23 July it had left its deposit rate at 2.25% without ruling out a September rise.

📊 Macro data

• US growth slows to 1.5% in the second quarter – The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, published on 30 July, came in at a 1.5% annualised rate after 2.1% in the first quarter, against roughly 2.0% expected.
• PCE inflation stays well above the Fed’s target – The headline personal consumption expenditures index rose 3.7% year on year in June, after 4.1% in May. The core index rose 3.3% year on year.
• US consumer confidence slips again – The Conference Board index fell to 90.8 in July, against an upwardly revised 92.2 in June and 92.4 expected. The present situation component lost 3.6 points to 114.9.
• Euro area inflation edges back up to 2.9% – Eurostat’s flash estimate for July, published on 31 July, came in at 2.9% year on year against 2.8% in June. Energy showed the highest rate at 10.0% and core inflation rose to 2.5%.
• Tokyo inflation accelerates for a second month – The Japanese capital’s consumer price index, published on 31 July, rose 2.0% year on year in July after 1.7% in June. Excluding fresh food it came in at 1.9% against 1.8% expected, and the measure excluding fresh food and energy watched by the Bank of Japan reached 2.0%.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin ends July below 64,000 dollars – The largest cryptocurrency shed 1.31% on 31 July to 63,870 dollars, according to CoinDesk. The CoinDesk 20 index is down 2.34% since Monday but up 8.7% over the month, its best monthly performance since July 2025.
• Ether and Solana fall with the market – Ether lost 1.40% to 1,890 dollars and Solana 2.0% to 73.04 dollars on 31 July. Coinbase shares gave up about 10% in the same session according to The Motley Fool.
• Spot bitcoin ETFs post their weakest month of inflows – US products had collected 33.79 million dollars in the week ended 24 July, a third consecutive week of inflows. Month-end reversed the trend with 465.26 million of outflows, for a monthly balance of only 205 million.
• Sentiment stays lodged in extreme fear – The Fear & Greed index stood between 24 and 25 on 31 July depending on the reading, against 28 the day before. Analytics firm BRN describes July as a “repair phase” rather than the return of sustained institutional demand.

💱 Currencies

• The euro takes back more than 1% against the dollar – EUR/USD was quoted at 1.1519 on 31 July after a weekly gain above 1.1% according to Babypips, which Zonebourse puts at 1.25% on a rolling seven-day basis. The move pushed the pair out of the top of the descending channel that had contained it since April 2026.
• The yen gives way after the BoJ before buyers return – The Japanese currency first weakened when the Bank of Japan announced its hold, EconoTimes reported. Babypips then flagged yen buying of significant size in Tokyo.

📈 Investment themes & analysis

• The market differentiates AI spending instead of punishing it wholesale – TradingKey puts at 610 billion dollars the one-year capital spending announced by three hyperscalers. The analysis argues that Azure is growing 43% year on year and Google Cloud 82% with a 514 billion backlog, which in its reading reflects spending backed by measurable demand rather than a bubble.
• MoneyRadar highlights the “hidden debt” of the AI giants – The newsletter devoted its 29 July issue to the funding of AI capital spending through borrowing rather than cash flow. Forbes puts AI-related debt expected across 2026 at around 570 billion dollars and notes that order coverage on hyperscaler bond sales fell from close to five times in February to below two times in July.
• MoneyRadar names Novo Nordisk its stock of the week – The newsletter describes a recovery in the share after a fall from about 140 to 50 dollars, which it attributes to the launch of oral Wegovy. The company reports that the pill has passed three million prescriptions, a large majority of them in patients never treated before, and publishes quarterly accounts on 5 August.
• Sector rotation favoured energy and defensives – Quantlake places consumer staples, industrials, materials and energy in the leading quadrant as of 31 July. InteractiveCrypto attributes the 30 July session to a move out of high-momentum technology names into energy.

🧠 Editorial / Education

Letter number 104 from Nicolas Chéron, published on 29 July under the title “How to choose your ETF?”, deals with the spread of exchange-traded funds among French retail investors. Drawing on the AMF investor dashboard, the author notes that the average age of the French ETF investor fell from 60 in 2018 to under 38 in 2025, and cites a People & Money study according to which 52% of French holders are aged 18 to 34, the highest proportion in Europe. He also points out that 54% of French people say they have never heard of an ETF, and attributes the shift to three characteristics: simplicity, the accessibility of shares sometimes priced below five euros, and a cost unrelated to the 1.5% to 2% a year charged by traditional funds. The letter then sets out six questions to ask before any purchase, arguing that the criteria that actually matter are not the ones most buyers look at. In the same issue Nicolas Chéron announces an educational collaboration with BNP Paribas Asset Management on the subject of ETFs.

🔭 Observed trends

• Three central banks, one same hold, three hawkish dissents – The Fed at 9 to 3, the Bank of England at 6 to 3, the Bank of Japan at 8 to 1: in all three cases the minority voices argued for tightening. That is the reverse of the configuration seen during the 2025 cutting cycle.
• The long end rises on both sides of the Atlantic – The US 30-year yield reached 5.28%, its highest since 2007, the 10-year 4.74% and the 2-year 4.29%. In Europe, MoneyRadar records a French 10-year at 3.97%, its highest since 2009.
• The correlation between equities and crypto inverted – The CoinDesk 20 index lost 2.34% over the week while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%. CoinDesk attributes the divergence to the Middle East conflict and to hawkish comments from the Fed committee.
• A green week does not offset a red month for the Nasdaq – The index gained 1.6% over the week but lost 3.2% across July according to HumbledTrader. The Dow Jones, for its part, strung together a fourth consecutive monthly gain.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.

Bulletin published on August 1, 2026, corrected on August 2, 2026 (market data for the trading week of 27–31 July).